Seven Cities That Will Lead in Lower Apartment Deliveries
Apartment supply volumes have been dropping across the United States, with completions for the coming 12 months projected to fall nearly 34%. Some markets are logging even more pronounced declines, according to data from RealPage Market Analytics.
Overall, just over 354,000 units were under construction at the end of the second quarter and scheduled for completion during the coming year, down from 535,800 units completed in the year-ending second quarter. Next year’s scheduled supply will mark a return to a more normal supply environment, which averages roughly 360,000 units annually.
Among the 50 largest apartment markets, seven are expected to see delivery volumes fall by about 60% or more, roughly twice the national pace, over the next year. Leading that group is San Jose, which is expected to deliver only 1,151 units in the coming year after delivering 5,122 units through the second quarter of this year. That’s a 77.5% decrease and is well below the market’s decade average of 3,092 units delivered annually, said RealPage.
Minneapolis follows closely with an expected annual supply decline of 73%, from 6,829 deliveries through this year’s second quarter to 1,845 over the next year. San Antonio is projected to deliver only 3,642 units over the next year, down sharply from 11,464 units delivered over the past year and representing the South region’s deepest relative decline in apartment supply over the coming year. Indianapolis’ supply is projected to drop 65.3%, down from 5,261 units to 1,826 units.
Denver, which was the only West region market on the list aside from San Jose, is expected to complete only 6,610 units compared with 17,462 over the past year, a drop of 62.1%. Denver was one of the nation’s biggest centers for apartment deliveries in the year-ending Q2 2025, said the report.
Milwaukee is one of three Midwest markets expected to see a drastic decrease in supply delivery along with Minneapolis and Indianapolis. Supply in the market is expected to drop 61.9% from 3,725 units to just 1,420 units.
Rounding out the list of markets expected to have the deepest apartment supply declines are Jacksonville, Austin, Memphis and Houston. Austin is the market with the nation’s deepest volume decline in the coming year, with deliveries dropping by 15,874 units.
Source: GlobeSt/ALM