Industrial Rents Climb as Port Uncertainty Looms
U.S. industrial markets are starting 2026 with solid rent growth, but lingering trade and geopolitical uncertainties are weighing on some port-driven sectors, according to the latest CommercialCafe national industrial report.
Concerns include looming tariffs on Chinese-built port cranes, Panama Canal geopolitical maneuvers and the Supreme Court's reversal of Liberation Day tariffs, all of which inject uncertainty into a sector that relies on stability. These challenges follow an already difficult 2025 for U.S. shipping, which tested both tenants and investors.
At the national level, in-place rents for industrial space averaged $8.94 per square foot at the end of January, a 5.1% year-over-year increase and a 7-cent rise from December. Atlanta led the nation in rent growth with an 8% increase over the past 12 months, followed by Miami and Tampa at 7.4%, and Philadelphia at 6.8%. Leases signed in the past year averaged $10.07 per square foot, $1.17 above national in-place rents, reflecting strong demand for modern and well-located industrial space.
Vacancy rates nationwide reached 9.6% last month, up 160 basis points from January 2025. While several markets are approaching equilibrium, others continue to see significant year-over-year increases in vacancy, said CommercialCafe. Currently, 355.7 million square feet of industrial space is under construction, largely unchanged from early 2025, signaling a period of stabilization as the industry continues to "rest and digest" after the previous supply glut.
Data center development is contributing to industrial construction activity, driven by tech giants' investments in AI and cloud infrastructure. In 2025, data center construction totaled 30.8 million square feet, with more than half concentrated in five markets: Washington, D.C./Northern Virginia (6.1 million square feet), Dallas-Fort Worth (3.2 million), Phoenix (2.9 million), Atlanta (2.8 million), and Columbus, Ohio (2.6 million). These hubs continue to dominate new data center development, underscoring the sector's growing role in driving industrial growth, the report said.
Regionally, California's Central Valley remains the West's most affordable industrial leasing market, though new lease premiums of $2 per square foot indicate rising costs for tenants. In the Midwest, Columbus, Ohio, has 12.2 million square feet of industrial space underway, translating to a 3.7% inventory expansion — the second-largest nationwide. Southern markets show mixed results: Houston's vacancy rate declined year over year, while Charlotte and Tampa continue to experience rising vacancies. In the Northeast, New Jersey recorded the largest industrial sales volume so far in 2026 at $372 million, with Boston surpassing $100 million.
Overall, January industrial sales totaled $4.1 billion nationwide, averaging $166 per square foot. Los Angeles led Western markets with $356 million in transactions and recorded the largest industrial sale so far this year – the $123-million purchase of the South Bay Distribution Center.
Source: GlobeSt/ALM