Permit Trends Signal Where Multifamily Competition Is Heading Next
Uneven economic conditions are showing up in permitting patterns, and the split is widening between markets that are still greenlighting projects and those that are not, RealPage reports. For investors, these permit trends matter because they are an early signal of where new product will be coming online and where the competitive landscape may stay relatively stable.
Los Angeles now leads the nation in multifamily permits and has seen the most dramatic shift in activity. From May 2025 to May 2026, permits there jumped 93.9 percent, significantly expanding the future supply pipeline in a market already known for high demand and barriers to new construction.
Seven of the top ten metros for multifamily permitting in May posted average increases of more than 43 percent year over year, representing roughly 4,250 units each. New York, Dallas, Atlanta, Miami, Washington, DC, Raleigh-Durham and Denver all recorded solid growth, while Atlanta edged up more modestly at 1.9 percent to 11,527 permits.
Where New Supply Will Hit Hardest
The markets showing sustained permit growth are where investors should expect more competition from new product in the next few years. In New York, permits rose 26.1 percent to 33,079, and in Dallas they were up 22.5 percent to 19,104, according to RealPage. These volumes point to deep pipelines that could put pressure on rents and lease-up strategies once projects deliver.
Miami and Washington, DC stand out as two metros with particularly strong momentum. Miami's permits climbed 63.7 percent to 11,189, while Washington, DC saw a 42.7 percent increase to 10,666. As more units move from permits into construction schedules, owners in these markets will need to factor in heavier competition and be precise about positioning and amenities.
Raleigh-Durham and Denver are also building up future competition. Raleigh-Durham's permits grew 24.2 percent to 10,176, and Denver's rose 30.2 percent to 9,181. These are markets where strong job bases and in-migration have kept fundamentals attractive, and the permit data suggest developers are still confident in long-term demand.
Markets Pulling Back On New Approvals
The flip side of this trend is a group of metros where permitting has slowed sharply, setting up a different competitive dynamic for investors already in the market. RealPage's analysis shows that San Antonio's permits fell 76.8 percent compared with 2025, Las Vegas dropped 36.7 percent, Austin declined 33.3 percent and Anaheim slipped 32.2 percent.
In these markets, fewer permits today mean a thinner pipeline several years out, which can support occupancy and rent growth for existing assets if demand holds. At the same time, the slowdown may limit development opportunities and signal that local market participants are wary of overbuilding or are facing financing or entitlement challenges, RealPage says.
Smaller cities show a similar pullback. In Augusta, Georgia, permits were almost cut in half, down 97.5 percent year over year. Several Florida markets—including Lakeland, Cape Coral-Fort Myers and Orlando—also reduced multifamily permitting, suggesting a cautious stance toward new supply.
Local Jurisdictions Shape Submarket Competition
RealPage's data goes beyond metro-level trends to look at the cities, towns, boroughs and unincorporated counties that are issuing the most permits. Those local jurisdictions are where submarket-level competition will actually play out once projects move forward.
Among the top permit-issuing places are Los Angeles, Brooklyn, the Bronx and Queens in New York; Miami; Columbus; Phoenix; unincorporated Harris County in Houston; Denver; and Atlanta.
For investors, tracking permit activity in these specific areas helps identify where clusters of new product may emerge and where existing properties may face direct competition from nearby deliveries.
Across the top ten metros, total permits reached 145,720 units, a 24.4 percent year-over-year increase, even though approvals were down a fractional 0.3 percent from April to May 2026.
In the first half of 2026, Los Angeles increased permits by 47.6 percent and Washington, DC by 42.5 percent, with New York and Raleigh-Durham also posting gains, illustrating that the momentum in these markets is not a one-month anomaly.
Source: GlobeSt/ALM