One Way or Another, the Housing Bill Will Get an Answer Today
Today will have major consequences for commercial real estate and the housing community — but one truth stands at the time of writing: nobody knows for sure what President Donald Trump will actually do.
All we have is the latest update, insisting on a Truth Social post today that he will not sign the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act in "protest" of inaction on the SAVE America Act in the Senate, a voting reform bill that's received opposition from Congressional Democrats. This is something that the President has been attempting to leverage since the housing bill landed on his desk.
Keep in mind that midnight is the deadline, which means we will get an official answer by then. However, we may have to wait until 11:59 pm passes.
Only Three Options
Now, if you take a deep look at the President's post, he specifically said he wouldn't sign it — not that he would veto it. Should he hold exactly to his word, the ROAD to Housing Act would become law once midnight strikes. At this point, that's the most likely scenario — but far from a guarantee. In fact, a U.S. official told CBS News that Trump is expected to run out the clock and let the legislation become law.
Option two is that Trump is bluffing and always had the intention to sign the bill into law or he is hoping to strike some sort of last-minute deal with the Senate to terminate or change the filibuster rules in the chamber that would pave the way for the SAVE America Act to pass.
The last option could cause a mess and uncertainty for CRE and the housing sector: Trump vetoes the legislation and sends it back to Congress, which can then override the executive power with a two-thirds vote in both the House and Senate. But keep in mind that Republicans control both chambers and they may not want to defy the President. This could kill the bill for good or postpone it.
Regardless, we'll have an answer in the coming hours or maybe minutes on whether the barriers to housing supply will be eased and if entities will be limited in how many single-family rental units they can own.
Because how sudden things tend to shift with the Trump administration's strategy from tariffsto peace negotiations — it's impossible to know for sure. But not signing the housing bill and letting it become law seems like the most likely scenario, as of now.
Source: GlobeSt/ALM