Fire-Risk Rural Northern California Areas Bleeding Resident Losses
Wildfire risk to some degree, is influencing where residents want to live. Now, a growing number of residents are avoiding certain areas of Northern California, following the devastating wildfires that ripped across the Golden State in 2025.
A new Redfin report tracked the top 10 biggest net outflows seen last year in fire-prone counties. Of that amount, it found three of the top five occurred in rural parts of California, which all lost more residents than gained by the hundreds.
Northern Cal Areas Losing Most Residents
Tuolumne County in Northern California had the highest net loss of domestic residents, at -775 last year. Some 96.9 percent of homes are at high fire risk, according to Redfin — also the highest seen in the report. Median home prices here sit at $395,883.
The No. 2 ranking goes to Sutter County in the Golden State, with the outflow reaching -754 — but with only 86.8 percent of homes at high fire risk.
The next heavily impacted California area sits at No. 4, losing 603 residents in 2025. The share of homes that face high fire risk is pegged at 96.8 percent.
Outside of California, some other major losers were third-ranked Starr County in Texas (-603, with 91 percent of homes at risk); fifth-ranked Summit County, Utah (-445, 95 percent of homes at risk); Taylor County, FL (-442, 94.6 percent of homes at risk); Lea County, New Mexico (-386, 93 percent of homes at risk) and Elmore County, Idaho (-334, 94.4 percent of homes at risk).
"Wildfire risk alone is rarely enough to deter people from living somewhere," Daryl Fairweather, Redfin's chief economist, said in a statement. "But when the area is isolated and also lacks job opportunities, it's tough to justify living there."
Fire-Prone Areas Seeing Population Gains
Still, that leads to Fairweather's next point. Fire-prone areas in the country with strong job markets near major city centers are still seeing population gains. In fact, 204 of the 308 highest fire-prone counties are gaining more residents than losing, according to Redfin's analysis.
The nation's leader in that category was Pinal County in Arizona, which sits between Phoenix and Tucson, with its net gain of 21,315 residents. Washington County in Utah ranked second, with a net gain of 4,714. Parker County in Texas was ranked third, enjoying a net flow of 4,614 residents.
Also, in the top 10 fire-prone areas gaining residents, four more are located in Texas, with two others in Arizona and Utah respectively.
So fire risk isn't enough to turn off citizens. Areas with solid economies and attractions can lure in more residents than they lose.
Source: GlobeSt/ALM