CBRE’s Kamran Paydar Looks for Opportunity as Multifamily Faces Change
Kamran Paydar, a First Vice President at CBRE, stands at the nexus of some of the most dynamic forces shaping the multifamily sector today. As he prepares to take the stage at GlobeSt.com’s multifamily conference, Paydar’s insights reflect the deep structural changes and enduring fundamentals defining the investment landscape in Greater Los Angeles and beyond.
The backbone of Paydar’s perspective is the enduring housing scarcity in Los Angeles, a feature he considers central to the region’s long-term outlook. “The most significant long-term factor supporting the multifamily market is the fundamental shortage of housing, especially as new supply delivery slows,” Paydar notes. This chronic shortage, he explains, has forged a durable base of renter demand that persists through economic cycles—particularly in areas where the cost to buy a home remains out of reach for most residents. He points out that Los Angeles consistently ranks among the least affordable places in the nation, where the gap between renting and owning is especially pronounced. According to recent CBRE research, mortgage payments here are nearly 40 percent higher than average rents, further preserving renter demand.
Against this backdrop, Paydar observes a notable shift in investor behavior. The era of aggressive capital chasing deals at any cost has been tempered by the reality of higher interest rates and a challenging financing environment, which has elevated the importance of selectivity and discipline. “Investors are highly selective, prioritizing stability and downside protection in established markets,” he says. High-net-worth individuals, family offices, and institutional funds are gravitating toward quality assets in prime locations, with many turning to local operating partners for expertise. “Global capital is still present, but it is more measured, often seeking partnerships with experienced local operators who can navigate the market’s complexities,” he adds.
Policy risk has grown more pronounced in recent years, according to Paydar. Local tax policies and renter-protection laws, particularly the City of Los Angeles’s ULA transfer tax, have weighed on transaction volume and complicated new development. Developers are increasingly looking for creative ways to structure deals, including joint ventures with landowners. At the same time, higher construction costs and inflationary pressures have forced investors to scrutinize operating expenses and public policy risk during due diligence. “A thorough analysis of public policy is now a critical component of any acquisition,” Paydar explains.
Despite these challenges, Paydar remains bullish on the potential of value-add strategies, especially for well-located, under-managed assets. He characterizes these as “the biggest untapped opportunities,” noting that repositioning older products in prime areas allows investors to increase rents and generate returns, with less exposure to the risks and costs of ground-up development. He also highlights the ongoing importance of policy shifts at both the city and state level—such as Los Angeles’s Housing Incentive Program and state-level densification laws—which he hopes will streamline approvals and support new supply.
Emerging innovations in property management and technology are also reshaping performance benchmarks. Paydar points to the adoption of smart building systems and advanced property management software as key drivers of operational efficiency. In his view, the use of data analytics and artificial intelligence has enabled managers to proactively address maintenance and improve tenant retention. “Focusing on resident experience is paramount,” he says, citing flexible lease terms, curated community events, and streamlined move-in processes as examples of new priorities for owners.
Looking out to the next five to ten years, Paydar anticipates that constrained supply and high barriers to entry will keep Los Angeles at the forefront of apartment demand. He expects more developers will leverage adaptive reuse and modular construction to overcome regulatory hurdles and rising costs, while major events like the World Cup and the Olympics keep global attention on the region. “Capital will continue to seek opportunities,” he says, underscoring a conviction that, despite volatility, the fundamentals of Los Angeles multifamily remain intact.
Paydar’s outlook is cautious but optimistic, characterized by his belief that long-term demand drivers will outweigh short-term uncertainty. For investors, the message is clear: in a market where fundamentals, policy risk, and innovation collide, strategic selectivity and a commitment to quality remain the name of the game.
Source: GlobeSt/ALM