REAL ESTATE NEWS

Berkadia has more than doubled the capital available for bridge-to-permanent financing for seniors housing communities (including memory care) and nursing homes — targeting California and other regions in the U.S

The firm recently struck a deal with a large financial institution, the name of which the firm did not disclose.

Berkadia was recognized as a top GSE and HUD lender for seniors housing by total volume on a combined basis in 2024 and closed approximately $2.6 billion in loan volume across all products.

“Berkadia’s bridge program is geographically agnostic, so the new capital can be used for bridge opportunities in California and other states,” Lisa Burgess, senior vice president of capital markets, seniors housing and health care at Berkadia, told GlobeSt.com.

With America’s over-65 population on track to hit about 20 percent by 2030, developers and investors are looking to determine the key markets where demand for senior-care communities will surge next.

Occupancy Improves 255 bps YoY

As of the third quarter of 2025, occupancy across all California coverage markets stood at 89%, improving 255 basis points year-over-year, with stabilized occupancy at 89.8%, according to NIC MAP.

Annual absorption reached 4%, while yearly inventory growth was 1%, with 32 properties currently under construction — representing 3.6% of existing inventory. Rent growth remains robust at 5.6% year-over-year, outpacing the national average of 4.4%.

“California’s senior housing market is gaining momentum, with occupancy and rent growth outpacing the national average,” Arick Morton, NIC MAP CEO, said.

“But with aging buildings and limited new construction, the state faces an $82 billion investment gap by 2050, underscoring the urgent need to expand and modernize senior housing to meet growing baby boomer demand.”

California’s senior housing stock skews older, with the average property opening year of 1996 and 56% of existing inventory built before 2000 — indicating an aging supply that may increasingly require renovation or repositioning.

Meanwhile, the California Senior Housing Investment Gap analysis underscores the long-term development challenge: based on projected demand, the state faces an estimated $82 billion investment gap by 2050 if current building trends persist.

While California has taken many steps recently to liberalize zoning and reduce barriers to new development, time will tell if these changes will support the requisite growth of the senior housing stock needed to meet the growing population of seniors in the state, according to NIC MAP.

Keeping an Eye on Medicaid

Ran Eliasaf, founder and managing partner of Northwind Group, told GlobeSt that local and regional operators drive successful skilled nursing and senior housing operations with a proven track record in their respective markets, strong relationships with hospital and provider networks and the ability to provide high-quality care to residents.

Northwind focuses on states with certificate-of-need (CON) or other supply-limiting restrictions, healthy budgets and a track record of supporting the skilled nursing and senior housing industry.

States that continue to support skilled nursing and senior housing operators through increased Medicaid reimbursement and quality improvement incentives are where we see the most M&A activity and opportunities.

“Rather than development and conversion, we continue to see more consolidation of family-owned portfolios to larger regional owner/operators,” Eliasaf said.

“Given the expected population growth over the next 10+ years, we expect a consistent increase in the senior housing and skilled nursing industries.”

But, of course, the medicaid cuts in the recently signed One Big Beautiful Bill Act law do cause some challenges for the sector and how reimbursement rates will be affected. These developments are worth watching over the coming years.

Source: GlobeSt/ALM