When Deal Volume Becomes a Super Bowl Stat
The question isn't about odds or over/unders. It comes from LightBox, which is asking a different sort of Super Bowl question: could the strength of a city's commercial real estate market offer any clue about its team's performance on football's biggest stage?
What began as a bit of data-driven curiosity has turned into an interesting economic lens. The company reviewed nationwide activity using its Phase I Environmental Site Assessment data and Transaction Tracker—two indicators frequently used by investors and lenders to measure deal flow, market confidence and redevelopment activity.
Data points behind the gridiron
The findings placed Seattle ahead of Boston on several commercial real estate metrics in 2025. LightBox reports a 12% increase in Phase I ESA activity in Seattle last year, compared to 7% in Boston, suggesting greater transactional and development momentum.
Meanwhile, Seattle's deal volume reached $3.4 billion, almost double Boston's $1.8 billion, reflecting differing investor sentiment between the West Coast and East Coast urban economies.
While no one is suggesting that environmental assessments can predict touchdowns, the data provides a snapshot of underlying confidence that often precedes broader economic outcomes.
A pattern with history
The idea has roots in a tradition started decades ago by Roger Staubach, the Hall of Fame quarterback who transitioned into a successful real estate career at JLL. Staubach once pointed out that the Super Bowl often went to the team whose hometown commercial real estate market was stronger—a loose pattern that reportedly produced eerily consistent results in its time.
LightBox's fresh analysis revisits that concept using modern data, relying on proprietary indicators to show how capital moving into one city can reflect both local economic vitality and investor conviction.
More than a prediction
As Manus Clancy, head of data strategy at LightBox, noted, the exercise isn't about wagering on the game.
"Markets with rising deal activity often reflect healthier fundamentals and greater investor confidence," he said, framing the correlation as a sign of forward-looking capital behavior rather than competitive prophecy.
The insight matters for real estate executives beyond the Super Bowl storyline. Tracking shifts in environmental assessment work or deal volume can provide early evidence of capital deployment trends—hints that often surface before broader market changes become visible through lending, leasing or valuation data.
The takeaway? Whether or not Seattle lifts the Lombardi Trophy, its current real estate momentum signals something even more tangible: optimism that's measurable long before kickoff.
Source: GlobeSt/ALM